How I Am Voting

Tomorrow is November 26th and election day so it is time to cast my advance vote at the nearest place I can find so I can help out on the day with other things.

Referendum
In the referendum I am voting for MMP. I care most of all about proportionality in election results and MMP is the most proportional system by far so it will be getting my vote. It is not legitimate in my mind for people to vote in this referendum to deny the minority of their right to vote which is what this referendum is about - reducing the numbers of minor parties. My second choice will be STV, it is nowhere near as proportional as MMP but it is a lot better than the other systems and I expect MMP to win which means it will get a review. In the review I would like to see the threshold of 5% abolished and ranking for electorate seats brought in. This means having STV polling high in this referendum is important as it shows people like ranking. Am not too concerned about the referendum as I think it would be nearly impossible for MMP to lose the second one even if it is possible it could lose this time.

Electorate Vote
I live in Rongotai so I don't have a great deal of options:
FINLAYSON, Christopher    National Party
KING, Annette    Labour Party
LATIMER, Joel    ACT New Zealand
NORMAN, Russel    Green Party
PIERSON, Brent    New Zealand First Party
RICHARDS, Don    Independent
RICKUS, Aroha    Māori Party
WELSH, Bruce    Conservative Party

The National, ACT, New Zealand First, Green and Conservative Party candidates are all with no chance of getting my vote for various reasons. The Maori Party candidate I had never heard of and showed some promise when she gave speeches but not in answer to questions where she read off sheets so also a clear no. Don Richards gave some good insight into the banking issues of today and could have been a good candidate for a protest vote. Last election I cast my electorate vote for Michael Appleby of the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party as a protest vote. However this time I have an electorate MP I know well due to my increased involvement in politics and she will easily be getting my vote as she does a fantastic job: Annette King.

Party Vote
Last time I was about three months out from the election tossing up between National and Labour. By the time of the election I was tossing up between Greens, New Zealand First and Labour. I ended up choosing Labour a few days before which I don't regret and I will do so again easily. Looking back through Labour's old election policies this is probably the best year for voting Labour there has been for a long time.


Predictions

1. ACT and Peter Dunne will leave Parliament.
2. The Maori Party will hold the balance of power.
3. Mana will get Hone Harawira and Annette Sykes.
4. The Conservative Party will not get elected.
5. MMP will win the referendum.
6. National will get 48% or lower.
7. Labour will get 30% or lower.
8. The Green Party will break 10%.
9. Both John Key and Phil Goff will resign before the next election.
10. New Zealand First will break 4% again but may not break 5%.