Saturday, November 19, 2011

"Rough Edges"

On TVNZ:
MMP's rough edges have been shown over the last week, says Maxim Institute researcher Steve Thomas, because one party leads all others by 20 per cent of the vote and there is still no certainty they will be in government.
One of the things that annoys me most about those who argue for changing MMP is the idea that the largest party should be guaranteed Government because it is simply incorrect.

For a very simply model:
Right Wing Party - 49%
Left Wing Party 1 - 25%
Left Wing Party 2 - 26%

In this situation while the right wing party may have a 23% lead on the other two parties it is clear left wing parties are preferred and they should be Government.

Under MMP the exact same situation occurs but is obviously more complex as parties do not remain strictly in any kind of ideological boundaries.

The reason National being Government is uncertain is because it may eventuate that less than half of voters support them on election day. This is completely fair and is not a sign of rough edges. As much as people shout in the media of how popular this Government is the fact is they are not. A popular Government gets 60-70% not looks like it is scraping around 50%. If you were a business and 1 in 2 of your customers did not approve of your service you would not be considered successful.

Whatever happens in this election there will be a Government supported by the majority of voters and this is how it should be. Under all of the other options available in the referendum we leave our selves open to having a Government that has less than 50% support because they are not proportional. All of them could in fact lead to the situation we had twice under first past the post where the National Party won more seats despite the Labour Party having more votes.

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